Expectancy and break-even win rate
A signal channel's win rate alone says little. What matters is how big the wins are against the losses, after fees.
Your numbers
At 60% and 1:1 every trade adds 0.15 R on average.
Win rate needed to break even
Above the red line a strategy makes money over many trades; below it, it loses — whatever the win rate.
FAQ
What is expectancy?
The average result per trade, in units of what you risk (R): win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss − fees. Positive means the method makes money over many trades.
Why can a high win rate lose money?
If the wins are small and the losses full-sized, a 80% win rate at 0.2 : 1 is below break-even. Channels that move the stop far away and take profit early show high win rates for exactly this reason.
How are fees turned into R?
A round trip pays the fee twice on the position. With a stop 2% from entry, 0.05% per side costs 0.1% of the position, which is 0.05 R.